内容提要：有关恐怖主义的研究，不仅可以从组织、观念层面入手，而且需从体系层面进行解读。作为体系的恐怖主义动荡弧，是基于组成体系的各单元及其互动关系形成的。这些单元包括全球性恐怖组织、区域性恐怖组织、”独狼”。其互动类型涉及竞争、合作、联盟，互动内容包含人员、资金往来、以及观念的分享。恐怖主义动荡弧体系在形成后具备一种整体性特征，核心表现是“反馈”效应。其中，正反馈推动体系的变化和发展，负反馈保证了体系的稳定。从体系格局上看，恐怖主义动荡弧是不稳定的，在较短时间内经历了“单极→两极→单极”的快速嬗变。从体系机制上看，尽管缺乏明确的法律、条约规定，但恐怖主义动荡弧体系已出现了要素自由流动机制与内在奖惩机制。从体系文化上看，恐怖主义动荡弧已形成一套将外部信息扭曲化处理并加以自我形塑的封闭性文化场域。这类信息会固化内部成员的认知模式与过程，内化他们的恐怖身份，最终使其成为恐怖主义动荡弧体系的坚实维护者。针对该体系，国际社会在反恐过程中，既要对恐怖组织进行系统的综合打击，也要切断外部世界对动荡弧体系的支持，方可从根本上破解恐怖主义痼疾。

    关键词:恐怖主义动荡弧;单元互动;体系属性;整合性治理

       Abstract: The study of instability can not only start from organizational and conceptual level, but also from the system level. As a system, the formation of terrorism arc of instability is based on the units and their interaction. These units include global terrorist organizations, regional terrorist organizations, and “lone wolves”. Their interaction involves competition, cooperation, and alliances. The interactive content includes personnel movements, financial flows, and sharing of ideas. The terrorism arc of instability has a holistic character after its formation, and its core nature is the “feedback” effect. Among them, positive feedback promotes the change and development of the system, and negative feedback ensures the stability of the system. From the perspective of configuration, the terrorism arc of instability is unstable. It has experienced a rapid transformation of “uni-polarity and bipolarity” in a short period of time. From the perspective of mechanism, despite the lack of laws and treaties, mechanism of the free movement of units and other mechanism of the internal reward and punishment have emerged. From the perspective of culture, the terrorism arc of instability has formed a closed cultural field that distorted external information and shaped itself. Such information will solidify the cognitive patterns and processes of internal members, internalizing their terrorist identity, and ultimately making them a solid defender of the system. In response to the terrorism arc of instability system, the international community should not only take comprehensive countermeasures against terrorism, but also cutoff the support from the external world, so as to fundamentally eradicate terrorism.    

       KeyWords: Terrorism Arc of Instability; Units Interactive; System Properties; Integrative Governance

   本文发表于《西亚非洲》2019年第1期。