内容提要：非洲之角多国政治、经济、社会的发展进入关键时期,开启了整个地区的中长期转型。这一历史性转型同时在个人、国家和体系层次展开：个人层次是顺应地区人口年轻化趋势的政治领导人代际更替；国家层次是顺应地区发展需求的从“安全第一冶向“发展第一冶的治理思维转型；体系层次是因应全球和地区地缘政治变化而来的跨红海地缘政治回归。这一转型的推进充满不确定性,也蕴涵巨大的可塑性。鉴于地区内国家自身能力差距及其传统国际交流合作关系,中国与该地区的合作尤其是“一带一路冶倡议的实施面临新的历史机遇，可望把握好该地区的可塑性并降低不确定性,推动其政治转型稳步走向可持续的和平与发展。

关键词：非洲之角；政治转型；可持续发展；中非合作

Abstract: The Horn of Africa (HoA) is entering a long-term historical transformation at the individual, state and systematic level now. The younger population causes the replacement of political leaders. The national governance shifts its focus from security to development. The geopolitical changes across the Red Sea is also taken into consideration. The transformation is full of uncertainty and potential. Given its capacity gap between the countries in the region and the traditional cooperation with their partners, China has significant potential to help the HoA to better grasp opportunities and reduce uncertainties to facilitate regional transformation toward sustainable peace and development. China and HoA should consolidate the dominant position of the “development-first” mentality in the region, strength regional and national capacity for sustainable peace and development.

Keywords: Horn of Africa, regional transformation, sustainable development, Sino-African cooperation

    本文发表于《现代国际关系》2020年第3期。