卢凌宇 许 剑

    内容提要：石油是工业经济的血液，也是最重要的能源和燃料。石油在地理上分布不均匀。一个国家如果只进口石油而不生产或者产量满足不了生产或储备的需要，就会成为石油进口依赖国。进口能源需要外汇，正常情况下外汇来源于出口贸易和外来投资，为此政府要提供必要的基础设施，制定和实施特定的产业政策以发展经济、拓展税基。同时，石油进口依赖国不得不加强对社会经济活动的监控和信息搜集，制订税收计划并完成税款征收，进而导致以财税部门为轴心的国家机器的扩张和效能的提高。此外，石油进口依赖国还要通过提供保护和发展经济-社会等公共产品来提高民众的纳税意愿。简言之，石油消费的缺口迫使进口依赖国扩展税基、提高官僚机构效能并提升民众的纳税意愿，最终显著地提高财政汲取能力。作者分析了由 1980-2013年54个发展中国家构成的面板数据，发现石油进口依赖显著地提高了发展中国家的财政汲取能力;不仅如此,外来援助显著地强化了石油进口依赖对发展中国家的积极建构作用。

    关键词：发展中国家；石油进口依赖；国家能力；汲取能力；官僚机构效能

Abstract: Oil is the blood of the industrial economy and the most important energy and fuel. Also, oil is geographically unevenly distributed. An oil import dependent country (OIDC) either imports oil without production, or produces less than what it consumes or reserves. Foreign currencies are indispensable to oil purchase, which are most often generated from exports and foreign investment. For this purpose, such a country is obliged to make national economy grow and expand the tax base by investing in infrastructures, making and implementing invigorating industrial policies. Meanwhile, it is imperative for OIDCs to make greater efforts to supervise and collect information on economic activities, formulate and enforce taxation plans, which eventually leads to the expansion of the fiscal-taxing bureaucracies and the other collateral agencies. Moreover, an OIDC also has to enhance the willingness of the citizenry to pay tax in exchange of the provision of public security and other public goods. In short, the gap between oil production and consumption forces a developing country to expand its tax base, improve the efficiency of its bureaucracies and elevate the willingness of taxpayers. A set of regression analysis of the panel data covering 54 developing countries from 1980 to 2013 finds that oil import dependence exerts an independent and significant impact upon extractive capacity. Furthermore, foreign aid significantly consolidates the state-building function of oil import dependence in the developing world．

Key Words: developing countries, oil import dependence, state capacity, extractive capacity, bureaucratic quality

本文发表于《世界经济与政治》2020年第12期。