张 春 赵娅萍

内容提要：特朗普政府与奥巴马政府对非战略的基本追求高度相似，即从权势转移视角思考美国对非战略，集中表现为与中国和俄罗斯在非洲展开地缘战略竞争。基于“美国优先”战略，特朗普政府对非战略的核心目标是将中国“推回”：政治上，美国反复“提醒”非洲“警惕”中国影响，并重点围绕部分非洲国家的政治转型展开“模式之争”；经济上，依据《建造法案》推动机构和资金重组，旨在“抵消”中国在非经济影响力;安全上，通过推动美国军事存在转型，优化美国对非安全援助，“阻止”中国参与非洲和平安全事务。尽管有夸大“中国威胁”和扭曲美国对非洲战略目标之嫌，但由于对非、对华战略均有高度两党共识，美国新政府极可能更加系统和灵活地实施将中国 “推回”的战略:一方面，拜登政府将调整其战略优先和政策举措，聚焦“一带一路”建设和中非和平安全合作;另一方面，拜登政府也将围绕更具道德感的公共卫生、气候变化等全球性议题与中国展开合作。

关键词：美国的非洲战略；遏制中国；政治“提醒”；经贸“抵消”；安全“阻止”

Abstract: The guiding principle for the Trump Administration’s Africa strategy is geopolitical competition with China and Russia, which is quite similar with that of the Obama Administration. Based on “America First” strategy, the core goal of the Trump Administration’s Africa strategy is to “push back” China from the African continent, which includes three pillars: politically, the US repeatedly reminds Africa to be “vigilant” about China’s influence, and focuses on “development model competition” in some specific African countries where political transformation is under way; economically, through institutional and financial restructuring backed by the BUILD Act, the Trump Administration aims at “neutralizing” China’s economic influence in Africa; in terms of security, the US government plans to “block” China from engaging into African peace and security affairs by facilitating the transformation of its military presence and optimizing its security assistance to Africa. Despite of risks of exaggerated “China threat” and distorted strategic objectives, the US United States will continue the “push back” strategy to a large content given that there are high level bipartisan consensus on both China strategy and Africa strategy; However, the new Administration will push it toward a more systematic and flexible direction: on the one hand, the Biden Administration may adjust its strategic priority and policy measures to focus more on China-Africa cooperation on the BRI and peace and security affairs; on the other hand, it is likely to work with China on some global issues such as public health and climate change.

Key words: US Africa Policy; containing China; political “Warning” tactic; economic “Neutralizing” tactic; security “Deny -Entry” tactic

本文发表于《西亚非洲》2021年第2期。