Salum Mussa Haruna

【内容提要】本文提出愿景 — 稳定悖论（VSP）理论，用以阐释后殖民非洲怀揣转型变革抱负的革命领导人为何频繁遭遇政权动荡。VSP 分析框架整合四大相互关联变量：愿景强度、精英凝聚力、对外依附程度与社会合法性，构建多维评估指数，并依托比较案例分析方法开展实证研究。研究选取七位非洲领导人作为分析样本 —— 帕特里斯・卢蒙巴、托马斯・桑卡拉、克瓦米・恩克鲁玛、穆阿迈尔・卡扎菲、纳尔逊・曼德拉、保罗・卡加梅与易卜拉欣・特拉奥雷；运用过程追踪法，结合政治演说、档案史料与二手文献完成结构化内容分析。研究表明：若变革愿景缺乏制度落地支撑、精英协同配合与分阶段推进安排，高革新导向的领导层将大幅提升政权倾覆风险；与之相对，兼具包容性联盟与弹性运行机制、承载革新目标的制度体系，能够促成可持续的国家转型。本文将稳定重新界定为结构性权力协商，而非规范层面的合法性，以此拓展领导理论、后殖民国家构建与非洲政治发展领域的研究边界；愿景 — 稳定悖论指数可用于研判脆弱政权中由改革引发的政治失稳风险。

【关键词】愿景 — 稳定悖论（VSP）、政权稳定、精英政治、后殖民治理

Abstract:This article introduces the vision–stability paradox (VSP) to explain why revolutionary leaders in postcolonial Africa often face regime destabilisation despite their transformative ambitions. The VSP framework integrates four interrelated variables – vision intensity, elite cohesion, foreign dependency and social legitimacy – into a multidimensional index applied through comparative case analysis. The study investigates seven African leaders – Patrice Lumumba, Thomas Sankara, Kwame Nkrumah, Muammar Gaddafi, Nelson Mandela, Paul Kagame and Ibrahim Traoré – using process-tracing and structured content analysis of political speeches, archival records and secondary sources. In the absence of institutional embedding, elite alignment or sequenced transformation, high-vision leadership raises the risk of collapse. In contrast, inclusive coalitions and flexible institutions with innovative objectives can create lasting change. The article advances leadership theory, postcolonial state-building and African political development by redefining stability as structural negotiation rather than normative legitimacy. The VSP index diagnoses reform-driven instability in fragile regimes.

Keywords：Vision–stability paradox (VSP), regime stability, elite politics, postcolonial governance

Originally published in Third World Quarterly (2026.07.30)[网络首发]

原文刊载于《第三世界季刊》（网络首发 2026 年 7 月 30 日）

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